Australia Day, 2007

Just back from our 'Australia Day' outing in our local shire, at our common haunt for the day, the little tourist-y village of Berrima.

Had an excellent day out, and what I most enjoy about Australia Day in general, not just this one, is the great sense of community it fosters. Ours is a country town, in what we call a 'regional' shire (in that we are close to a major city - Sydney - and somewhat urban in outlook - but also somewhat 'country as well). A lot of folk (me included) in this area work in the city, but commute from the place they choose to live, or some have a weekend retreat here, and a place in the city also.

We had sausage sandwiches courtesy of the local Rotary club (a chance at fundraising for them - very much an institution amongst many Aussie voluntary organisations is the sausage sizzle and drinks and steak sandwich booth). Great coffee from one of several boutique coffee stands, lots of market stalls, and we had a parade.

Many would view our parade as quaint, but I think it's great. we had people in period costume, restored vintage cars and tractors, old machinery, the local cadets and pipe bands, and, not least, the local emergency services were there in force. (The Rural Fire Service, AKA the Bushfire brigades, the SES - the State Emergency Service - sort of a FEMA). That gives the community a chance to show their appreciation to these good people - volunteers - there is no pay involved for their often quite dangerous and unpleasant community service. It gives us a chance to say 'Thanks' and for them to get a little bit of a clap and cheer from their community. God knows they get little else for their efforts beside a warm fuzzy feeling they are doing the good thing.

Today is also a good time to reflect on what we have. To be born, or become, an Aussie, I believe, is to win big in life's lottery, especially when you see what is happening in the rest of the world.

The First Fleet was a crazy social experiment. Yes, there were convicts (many transported for petty crimes - serious ones invited the death sentence back then), also soldiers, sailors, administrators. And one great gift - English law and governance and traditions of how society can be best organised - those poor souls had precious little else given to them.
Cast out onto those 'Fatal Shores', the driest continent, the one place 'least like home' , they had no choice but to work hard, co-operate, struggle, endure - or perish. And look what they and their successors have achieved in a little over 200 years! - a mere blink in terms of human history.

I believe that if you look at the 20th century 'til now, in the whole world, but 6 - six! - countries have remained independent and universally free for those 100 or so years - Canada, NZ, USA, Switzerland, Iceland - and Australia. (The UK doesn't make the list because elections were not held during WW2, nor did Sth Africa and other places have unviversal suffrage). Not many countries had a worse start, most had more to build up with and from. Many these days have the free gift of oil wealth. Few countries had so many hardships to overcome, but they did, and have given us one of the most prosperous, free, and happy societies on the face of this earth. Australia is always near the top of the HDI - the Human Development Index. We can be very proud of our country, and we should be mindful, and thankful, for what our forebears have passed on to us.

(And just to show that a great day out was had by more of the friendly locals (From Andrew Bolt via Tim Blair);

(More) Musings on Global warming

Today is the last day of summer, and the statistics already say it's been the wettest summer for 6 years. (For Sydney). And for a climate that in summer can give you temperatures exceeding 40C something else of interest;

"...Remarkably, not one day this summer pushed past 31 degrees.
"That's only happened three times in the past (in 149 years of the bureau's weather records), with the last being 1956 - it's quite significant,"...".

Australia's weather patterns are not just a yearly cycle. Since settlement a much longer cycle of wet years/drought years has been noted - usually attributed to the El Nino/La Nina effect. (We appear to have just entered a La Nina period).

It wasn't so long ago that Climate Change Activist Dr Tim Flannery (who is a paleontologist, not a climatologist - Stern and Garnaut likewise are economists, not climatologists), predicted;

"...that Australia is now entering long-term climate change, which could cause longer and more frequent droughts.
He also predicts that the ongoing drought could leave Sydney's dams dry in just two years...".

Perhaps not surprisingly, we hear less from Tim in the media these days than we used to.

I still approach the topic of Global warming (these days called Climate Change instead) with an open mind. Perhaps it's my Engineering background, but I look for objective evidence and try to find out for myself. What I am sure of is that the science isn't settled. And I get very cynical when the Climate Change Activists' response to scepticism is to try and muzzle, if not completely veto, debate. Truth will withstand scrutiny, will be supported rather than weakened by debate - if it is in fact truth. Falsehood founders in the light of scrutiny and questions.

So I look for information. I found this. Seems 2007 wasn't warmer than preceeding years, it was cooler - substantially cooler - by each of the 4 main measures of Earth's temperature. Now one year's measurements can be a statistically insignificant glitch. It is the trend that matters, and other things need to be looked at too.


There are also other cycles to look at. To start, ice core measurements can be used to plot temperature, CO2, and particulate levels going back 450,000 years. That data shows recurring warming and cool cycles. Then there are plots for the Ice Ages. These cover a very long period of alternate cold and warm cycles. Then there is the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age, which if nothing else demonstrate that things haven't been static even in the last few hundred years on the climate front.

Then there is the Sun's Cycles to take note of.

As I said, I try to keep an open mind, collect objective data. What I believe is an extremely bad idea is to let 'Activists' alone steer debate, and have them solely provide data. Because, sadly, on this issue and many others, they then only provide a subset of data that leads you to the conclusions they wish you to make.
No thanks. I'd like all the data in the public domain please, and informed debate from those Scientists who disagree as well as those who 'tow the party line', to be added in to the discourse on this important issue.

Australia (and a coupla 'Ordinary Australians') vote.

As some may have noticed, I've been off line for about 2 weeks. We have been moving things around in our house, and one result was I only just got internet access back.

It's election day here in Oz. Our family voted this morning, and significantly, Daughter voted for her first time, having turned 18 less than 2 weeks ago (but you can register on the electoral roll at 17 to vote once turning 18).

It's just gone 5:30 here. Polls close at 6PM. Things happen quickly after 6. The Electoral Commission staff at each booth (polling station) close the doors, shutting in themselves and the Scrutineers - (a representative for each candidate in that seat who helps ensure the process is proper and above board) - in and the first, quick count is done by them, and phoned to the AEC, and by the Scrutineers to the candidates offices. (The first figures are known by 6:20 usually). (I used to Scrutineer).

Some thoughts;
. Labor/Rudd has been consistently ahead in the polls all year.

.It is the result in the 20 or so 'Marginals' which truly count - and will decide the election outcome.

.There is apparently a late surge towards Howard and the coalition (Lib/Nat).

My call? A Labor win.
I will update later tonight.

Update 25 November 2007: (These jotted down as we watched the coverage)
My promised update (though a little late - we had 'family stuff' to do).

.6:00PM Polls close in NSW and Vic (still 1 hr to go in Qld, as they aren't on Daylight Saving).

.6:05PM 'The Australian' newspaper exit polls suggest voting 53% labor to 47% coalition on 2PP (2 party-preferred) basis (we have preferential voting here in Australi - not first past the post).

.6:07PM Exit polls suggest PM Howard is in danger of losing his own seat of Bennelong.

.6:35PM First figures in from small booths - 15 of vote counted. exit polls showing 7% swing to labor - landslide material!

.6:55PM Former PM Hawke says "this feels like his 1983 win" Lib MP/Minister Joe Hockey says this is " end of the Democrats".

.7:12PM Lindsay showing 10% swing to labor. Almst certainly a loss for the libs.

.7:23PM Eden-Monaro 53/47% on 2PP "strong swing to labor in key seats".

.7:46PM "5% swing to labor in Qld. Ch7 computer predicts 76/72 seat split in House of reps (ie a labor win).

.8:00PM Polls close in WA (3 hrs behind eastcoast Melb/Syd).

.8:25PM Mark Kelly claims Eden-Monaro for labor - 1st seat claimed!

.8:30PM Julia Gillard says labor can form government.

.8:40PM Jeff Kennet says it looks like John Howard has lost the election and lost his seat.

.8:44PM "Queensland really delivering for labor"

.8:51PM Ch7 commentator Mark Riley calls it - labor victory. 6.5% swing nationally to labor.

.9:06PM First figures from WA. Ch7 election computer calls labor victory.

.10:05PM Howard phones Rudd to concede.

.10:36PM Howard arrives at Wentworth hotel in Sydney and gives speech conceding defeat (quite dignified and gracious).

.10:50PM "The Howard era has ended".

.11:05PM Rudd delivers victory speech at Suncorp stadium in Brisbane.

(All this scrawled down on the back of an envelope as we watched the tally unfold).

Why did they lose? In my opinion; WorkChoices (Industrial Relations legislation), and that the electorate has a better memory that some think - eg "who do you trust to keep interest rates low", Also, alienating 1.5 million voters who happen to also be gun-owners in 1996 didn't help, eventually.